What is the extent of the iPhone + at&t exclusive?

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Has anyone seen any mention of at&t exclusive on the iPhone beyond the current iPhone model?

If you read the official press releases that announced the exclusive arrangement, no where at all does it mention a multi-model lock-up. Only a multi-year agreement… From Apple:

MACWORLD SAN FRANCISCO—January 9, 2007—Apple® and Cingular announced that Cingular, the largest wireless carrier in the US, will be Apple’s exclusive US carrier partner for Apple’s revolutionary iPhone unveiled today. As part of this multi-year partnership, Apple and Cingular are working together to provide innovative new features to mobile phone users, such as iPhone’s pioneering and unique Visual Voicemail, a first on any mobile phone in the world.

“Apple chose Cingular because they are the best and most popular carrier in the US,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We are thrilled to be offering our revolutionary new iPhone exclusively with Cingular, and look forward to working together with them to create some wonderful new features for our customers.”

“By partnering with Apple, we are continuing our commitment to raising the bar for customers,” said Stan Sigman, Cingular’s president and CEO. “We think the iPhone is one of the most innovative devices ever created, and we look forward to letting our customers be the first in the world to experience the future of mobile phones.”

From at&t:

Apple has chosen AT&T, the best and most popular carrier in the US with over 62 million subscribers, to be Apple’s exclusive carrier partner for iPhone in the United States.

With this multi-year exclusive partnership, iPhone will only be available with wireless service from AT&T. Working together ensures seamless integration between network and device.

Am I missing something? All the statements seem limited in scope, if not broad in impact.

I am not sure I need to mention the significance of this… but if true, anyone who bemoans the at&t “feature” of the iPhone may be relieved if future models — like say an HSDPA or EV-DO, true 3G version is announced next year… or a iPhone mini… or a iPhone Pro with corporate email and mechanical keyboard — are available on their current carriers.

A May 21st USA Today article reported (seemingly confirmed, but not definitively so) that Apple was barred from developing a CDMA-version of the iPhone. The article was interpreted as speculation by a number of blogs, which triggered a bunch of unintelligent fan-boy vs Apple-hater discussions, instead of any meaty confirmation.

I simply cannot believe Apple was shortsighted enough to grant at&t such a long runway. Five years in the mobile phone industry is an eternity. USA Today asserted:

Apple is barred for that time from developing a version of the iPhone for CDMA wireless networks.

What they refer to as a “version of the iPhone” is certainly way too loose language to suit Apple legal I’ve got to imagine.

What’s the real story here? I’m just asking.

Fundamentally, this blog post is driven by my feelings as a consumer in a free market. I want buyers to have choice. In particular, I hate lock-ups of hardware and specific mobile networks – this coupling has not benefited consumers in any measurable way, yet somehow the mobile phone market is under the illusion that the network really matters. The crazy network infrastructure economics – and resultant shareholder pressures on network operators has distorted the consumer experience in a bad way. The product and service offerings are a strange supply-side amalgam based little on the demand-side realities of end-user experiences.

No need for me to get too wound up. It doesn’t even affect me today. I am not anxious to ditch my BlackBerry, and I am certainly not willing to deal with at&t customer service anytime soon. The Verizon angle doesn’t phase me… I am not a CDMA customer today, in fact I am a T-Mobile customer, but perhaps what is most relevant is that I am an ex-at&t customer, and I am not going back anytime soon.

Smartphone pie, XXL please

Good coverage on RIM today. In the wake of the iPhone launch hype, it is good to see folks showing some love to BlackBerry. While iPhone has buzzed the consumer consciousness regarding smartphones, BlackBerry for the better part of the last 5 years has been the only company genuinely delivering on the promise of smartphones. It’s breakthrough integration with corporate email servers, and the multiple generations of tweaking their user interface has made the BlackBerry one of the most successful portable devices, ever.

IPhone mania is great and all, and I admit it’s pretty awe inspiring. The fact that Apple pulled off such a hype campaign is a testament to their past successes in delivering great end-user experiences. But, their track record of making great connections with consumers’ emotions also sets a very high bar for themselves. Which is to say that the iPhone, however pretty, better darn well deliver a killer user experience, or it will be nothing short of a letdown.  People seem to ignore the fact that Apple is not alone in this space. It’s also not yet obvious how the iPhone’s innovations will create any sustainable advantage in the smartphone market.  What are the apps that people truly believe Apple has revolutionized?  Here are my early judgements on the iPhone’s wannabe killer apps.

Web Browsing? Still too small of a screen, and not much better than on other smartphones. EDGE isn’t gonna knock anyone’s socks off. No Flash. Verdict: While it looks prettier than other phone browsers, is web-lite ever a killer experience?

Email? Lack of corporate email integration is an issue. Soft keyboard is an annoyance. I suspect future iPhone models will have hard qwerty keys in the future — their corporate HCI guys won’t put up with software gee-whiz for long. Verdict: Not even close to killer. Lose the touchscreen keyboard, support exchange server, then we’ll talk.

Maps? Hardly a killer app that justifies a smartphone. BlackBerry, LG, and Samsung are already ahead in terms of GPS integration, and so far, no location-based services have been implemented or deemed vital… And again, what can Apple deliver uniquely that Google/BlackBerry/MS can’t? Verdict: Not killer… not yet at least.  Let’s see more here.

Integrated iPod? I just don’t buy it. My iPod is still a better device, right? I find it hard to believe that Apple thinks they can leverage their iPod platform to make a smartphone indespensible. These functions have not shown to benefit from any coupling in the past, and it isn’t apparent why they should be combined going forward. Verdict: Not killer.

My opinions… time will tell.  But I don’t think a bunch of “pretty neato” features cobbled together make a homerun device.  There has to be something that the iPhone does better than any other device.  Early reports do not signal this has happened.

Apple has educated a whole new swath of the market in a big way. So the iPhone is goodness for the whole smartphone market, enlarging the pie, not just taking a bigger a slice.

I had the feeling this was so, and recent articles confirm that RIM-themselves are thankful. Competition breeds innovation, and RIM, let’s face it, is plenty poised to give Apple a run. They have a robust pipeline, reasonable costs, a loyal user-base (Stats say that less than 6% of iPhone buyers were previously BlackBerry users), and a focus on the enterprise user, which is where multi-purpose devices today deliver immense value.

RIM is moving forward from a position of strength, an affordable, capable platform with a bona fide killer app, and a relatively loyal captive market. Apple moves forward on reputation and software usability street-cred, which loyalists will love.  But can it alone revolutionize the segment and lead to market domination?

Whispers of RIMM shares headed to $300 don’t seem that far fetched.